艾伦：乌克兰战争期间中国对俄罗斯的军事援助：无人机篇（下）
五、
来自中国的持续、全面且不断升级的支持，其影响远超简单的物质援助。它如同一位强大的催化剂，不仅为俄罗斯提供了维持战争的能力，更深刻地重塑了乌克兰战场的战术生态，加速了新型作战条令的形成，甚至在战略层面挑战着西方传统的军事思想。这种影响是全方位的，从单兵的生存体验，到集团军的作战指挥，再到战争的经济消耗模式，都因这些无处不在、且日益精进的“天空之眼”而发生了根本性的变革。要理解这场战术革命，首先必须解构俄军赖以作战的关键无人机系统，并揭示其内部跳动的“中国心脏”。
远程消耗战的主力，是被称为“天竺葵 -2”的自杀式无人机。这款最初由伊朗设计的武器，在被俄罗斯大规模国产化后，已经演变成了一个严重依赖中国供应链的“混血”系统。冲突武器研究中心（CAR）的分析显示，俄罗斯本土制造的“天竺葵 -2”已“充满了中国零件”。其关键的导航天线来自北京微电子技术研究所（BMTI），其发动机是中国仿制的德国林巴赫 550 型发动机，甚至其机身结构也经过了修改，使用了通过中国中间商采购的、更坚固的交织碳纤维，取代了伊朗原版的蜂窝结构。可以说，没有中国的零部件，俄罗斯的“天竺葵”生产线将瞬间停摆。
在俄罗斯的战术棋盘上，“海鹰 -10”侦察无人机与“柳叶刀”巡飞弹构成了一对致命的“猎杀组合”。作为俄军的“功勋”侦察机，“海鹰 -10”是炮兵的眼睛与战术基石，但它自诞生之日起就充满了外国零部件，战争爆发后，其供应链更是大规模转向香港和中国大陆。而作为“外科手术刀”的“柳叶刀”巡飞弹，在摧毁乌克兰高价值目标方面战功卓著，其内部同样是一个外国零部件的“联合国”，其中源自中国的零部件占比高达 67%。它甚至使用了西方的 AI 处理模块，如英伟达的 Jetson TX2，但这些受管制的尖端产品，几乎可以肯定是通过中国的中间商和灰色渠道获得的。
然而，真正从根本上改变地面战形态的，是如蜂群般涌现的 FPV 无人机。如果说上述无人机是俄军的“正规军”，那么数量庞大、成本低廉的 FPV 无人机就是战场上的“游击队”和“消耗品”。俄罗斯计划在 2025 年生产高达 200 万架 FPV 无人机，这一雄心勃勃的目标，其实现的可能性几乎百分之百建立在中国零部件的无限量供应之上。从提供动力的 T-Motor 电机，到提供视野的 RunCam、Foxeer 摄像头，再到负责控制的 Matek 飞控和电源分配板，以及图传模块、天线、机架、电池，构成一架 FPV 无人机的所有关键部件，几乎全部来自中国。俄罗斯所做的，仅仅是在国内进行最后的组装。中国在全球 FPV 爱好者和商业零部件供应链中的绝对主导地位，被俄罗斯成功地进行了工业规模的军事化应用。
基于上述由中国支撑的硬件基础，俄军的战场战术发生了深刻的革命。俄军将不同功能的无人机进行了高效整合，形成了一套标准化的“猎杀链”体系。“海鹰 -10”等侦察无人机扮演“猎人”的角色，一旦锁定目标，“柳叶刀”或 FPV 无人机便作为“杀手”被引导至目标上空，发动精确打击。在此基础上，光纤 FPV 无人机的出现更是一次战术颠覆，它通过物理线缆而非无线电信号进行控制，直接破解了乌克兰的电子战防御体系。一名乌克兰前线军官将 2024 年底描述为一个“转折点”，当时乌军的电子战系统因“无法被干扰的光纤 FPV 无人机”的出现而开始“崩溃”。这些无人机能够深入乌军后方 10 公里进行打击，“压倒了乌克兰的后勤路线”。
与此同时，俄罗斯将消耗战与饱和攻击的战术运用到了极致。凭借“天竺葵 -2”无人机产量的飙升，到 2025 年 3 月，俄罗斯已将该型无人机的周发射量从 2024 年初的约 200 架猛增到超过 1000 架。其目的非常明确：即使乌军的拦截率很高，剩余的无人机也足以对民用设施和能源基础设施造成重大破坏，同时以极低的代价消耗乌克兰昂贵的西方防空导弹库存，创造了极为有利的成本交换比。这一切共同创造了一个前所未有的“透明战场”，任何移动都面临被发现和攻击的风险，对士兵造成了沉重的心理压力，并迫使战术从机动转向隐蔽。这场由中国技术驱动的战场演变，正在催生一种新的战争范式，它更青睐工业规模和快速、可消耗的创新，而非传统西方军事思想中精良但昂贵的平台。它向世界证明了一种基于大规模生产和军民深度融合的军事工业模式的可行性，这种模式有潜力通过压倒性的数量优势来抵消甚至战胜技术优势，这对未来可能发生的大国冲突，具有深远且令人不安的战略启示。
六、
面对日益增多、不容否认的证据链条，一场围绕中国对俄无人机支持的激烈外交与制裁博弈，在全球舞台上拉开帷幕。这场博弈的一方，是试图维持“中立”形象、否认提供致命性援助的中国；另一方，则是手持制裁大棒、不断升级警告和惩罚力度的美国与欧盟。双方的交锋，不仅体现在联合国的外交辞令中，更体现在一份份不断加长的制裁名单和针锋相对的贸易管制措施上。
自战争爆发以来，中国外交部便构建了一套标准化的“外交烟幕”。发言人毛宁、林剑等人，在面对记者提问时，一再重申北京在乌克兰问题上的“客观公正”立场，坚决否认向冲突任何一方提供致命性武器。他们强调，中国“一贯审慎、负责任地对待军品出口，严格管控军民两用物项”，并强烈反对美欧方面“毫无根据的指责”和“非法单边制裁”。与此同时，身处风暴中心的大疆和道通等中国无人机企业，也积极配合，构筑了法律和公关层面的“防火墙”，纷纷发表声明表示“坚决反对”将其产品用于任何军事目的。然而，这种官方的中立表态和企业的自证清白，与大量证据所揭示的物质支持之间，存在着一道巨大的、无法弥合的鸿沟。为了应对外界压力，中国商务部也象征性地采取了一些行动，例如发布了针对某些特定性能无人机及相关设备的出口管制公告。但西方普遍质疑这些措施的有效性，认为其更像是为了应付国际舆论的姿态，未能从根本上阻止产品通过灰色渠道流向俄罗斯。
面对北京的外交辞令和规避网络的持续运作，美国和欧盟的反应虽然有所滞后，但其制裁的力度和广度在不断升级，打击目标也越来越精准，逐渐从外围的“中间商”深入到核心的“总源头”。美国政府的行动最为迅速和严厉，早在战争爆发前就已将大疆公司列入“实体清单”。战后，更是以前所未有的频率，将数十家支持俄罗斯军事工业基础的中国大陆和香港实体列入各类制裁名单。一个重要的转折点发生在 2024 年 10 月，美国财政部首次直接针对中俄联合生产完整武器系统（即“鹰身女妖”无人机）的行为，制裁了厦门林巴贺和深圳红兔矢量两家中国公司，这标志着美国的打击重点已从阻止零部件流动，升级为惩罚直接参与武器开发的中国企业。
欧盟最初在制裁中国企业方面表现得更为谨慎，但随着证据的不断涌出，其态度日趋强硬。历史性的突破发生在 2024 年 12 月的第 15 轮对俄制裁中，欧盟首次对中国公司实施了“全面制裁”，将包括厦门林巴贺在内的 4 家中国公司列入黑名单。此后的第 16 轮和第 17 轮制裁中，欧盟继续扩大名单，将数十家来自中国内地和香港的实体增列入贸易限制清单，其制裁理由五花八门，不仅包括供应无人机零部件和微电子元件，甚至还涵盖了用于操作无人机的视频游戏控制器、用于生产武器的“数控机床软件”，以及一家因向俄罗斯承包商提供遥感卫星图像而被制裁的中国公司。这场围绕无人机的隐秘供应战，凸显了现代战争中军民两用技术和全球供应链的复杂交织。西方的制裁反应虽然在不断加强，但面对中俄规避网络惊人的适应速度，双方形成了一场持续的、动态的“猫鼠游戏”，其结果至今仍未明朗。
结论
综合分析可知，在持续的乌克兰冲突中，无人机战争已成为一个关键的检验现代军事理论的场域。在此背景下，中国所扮演的角色，其复杂性与关键性远超其官方所宣称的“中立”立场。相关证据表明，北京方面可能通过一种精心构建的“战略模糊”政策，在避免直接军事介入的前提下，为俄罗斯的军事行动提供了多层次、深入且持续的物质支持。此种支持体系的范围涵盖了从公开市场可购得的商用无人机，到构成武器系统核心的军民两用零部件，乃至可能涉及与俄方进行完整武器系统的联合研发与生产。这一系列活动据信是通过一个复杂的全球性灰色网络来实施的，其运作逻辑或根植于深刻的地缘战略考量，可能的目标包括消耗西方国家的资源、巩固与俄罗斯的战略伙伴关系，并借此冲突获取宝贵的实战技术数据。然而，这种在国际法规边缘地带运行的策略，正面临来自美国和欧盟日益增强的制裁压力，预示着一场围绕全球供应链治理、技术标准制定和国际规则解释权的激烈博弈正在展开。因此，乌克兰上空的无人机战争，其意义不仅在于对该冲突进程的直接影响，更可被视为一个缩影，它预示着一个以技术能力和工业实力为核心竞争力的新型大国博弈时代的来临。
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“China secretly sends enough gear to Russia to equip an army.” POLITICO, 2023. https://www.politico.eu/article/china-firms-russia-body-armor-bullet-proof-drones-thermal-optics-army-equipment-shanghai-h-win/.
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